BMIE Market 02421

Middlesex County, Massachusetts · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	18,080 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±916 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	6,824 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±401 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	17,342 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	6,768 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$227,813 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±31,387 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	48.2 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,948 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±351 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$1,205,700 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±52,318 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	9.6 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	18 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 02421
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	11.5 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+5.9% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+28.6% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+100.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+80.0% DERIVED: 1998 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	20 (range 17–23) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.4 per year, r² 0.55) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	80 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	87 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	78 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	69 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 02421. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.4 restaurants per year, r² 0.55, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Massachusetts and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 491, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 80 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	87.4	87	40%	+35.0
Restaurant Opportunity Score	78.4	78	35%	+27.5
Market Momentum Score	68.7	69	25%	+17.2

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 87 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	18,080	80	40%	+31.9
Median household income (ACS)	227,813	99	40%	+39.8
Households (ACS)	6,824	79	20%	+15.8

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 78 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	28.6	70	35%	+24.5
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	10.0	72	25%	+18.1
Population (ACS)	18,080	80	20%	+15.9
Median household income (ACS)	227,813	99	20%	+19.9

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 69 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	5.9	62	50%	+31.2
10-year restaurant growth	28.6	70	30%	+21.0
20-year restaurant growth	100	82	20%	+16.5

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (41)

By cuisine

Coffee 7 · American 6 · Bakery 6 · Dessert 4 · Italian 4 · Asian 3 · BBQ 3 · Sandwiches 3 · Pizza 2 · Burgers 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Chinese 1 · Indian 1 · Japanese 1 · Seafood 1 · Steakhouse 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 26 · Bakery 9 · Bar 5 · Quick service 5 · Coffee shop 4 · Dessert 4 · Café 3 · Casual dining 2 · Food truck 2 · Specialty food shop 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Bread Obsession	Bakery	Bakery	433 Marrett Rd	open
Bruegger's Bagels Bruegger's Bagels	Bakery	Bakery · Sandwiches	413 Waltham St	open
Buca di Beppo	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	20 Waltham St	open
Bulpan Grill & Lounge	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	27 Waltham St	open
Cafe At Lexington Crossing	Café	Coffee	81 Hartwell Ave	open
Chicken & Rice Guys 2	Food truck		101 Hartwell Ave	open
Chicken And Rice Guys Llc Chicken & Rice Guys	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	5 Childs Rd	open
Dabin Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		10 Muzzey St # 1	open
Daikanyama Daikanyama NYC	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Asian	43 Waltham St	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Quick service · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Coffee	286 Lincoln St	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Quick service · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Coffee	373 Waltham St	open
Dunkin'	Coffee shop	Coffee	915 Waltham St, Shell Oil	open
Fiorella's Trattoria	Restaurant (service type not stated)		25 Waltham St	open
Formosa Taipei	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	315 Marrett Rd	open
Guido's Pizza Guido's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	10 Waltham St	open
Lexington Bbq Battle	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	1 Lincoln Street	open
Marrett Square Deli	Restaurant (service type not stated)		319 Marrett Rd	open
Max Stein's American	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	94 Hartwell Ave	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Bakery · Dessert	Dessert · Burgers · American	I-95 / Rte 128 North (Service Plaza)	open
Mitll Forbes R60441540	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service		3 Forbes Rd	open
Omar's Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	20 Waltham St	open
Post 1917 Lexington	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse · Seafood · American	27 Waltham St	open
Prince Street Bakery 24	Bakery	Bakery	24 Hartwell Ave	open
Rosie's Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	32 Waltham St	open
Royal Pastry Shop	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	317 Marrett Rd	open
Shabu and Mein	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian	168 First Street	open
Spice Box	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Other	Sandwiches · Indian	321 Marrett Rd	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	Trapelo Rd	open
Teppanyaki Asian Cuisine	Restaurant (service type not stated)		27 Waltham St	open
The District Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	760 Marrett Rd	open
The Hangar Cafe Lexington	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Coffee	103 Hartwell Ave	open
The Upper Crust Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	41 Waltham St	open
Town Meeting Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	American	2027 Massachusetts Ave	open
Tutto Italiano	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	45 Waltham St	open
Vessellyfe Craft Food Halls - Revolution	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	3 Maguire Rd	open
Vic Bones Barbecue, Grill, and Smoke Pit	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	BBQ	42 Carville Ave	open
Vine Brook Tavern	Restaurant (service type not stated)		20 Waltham St	open
Vinny T's Of Boston	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	20 waltham ave	open
Vintage Tea & Cake Company	Juice, smoothie, tea	Tea / bubble tea	21 Muzzey St	open
Waxy O'Connor's	Bar		94 Hartwell Ave	open
WXYZ	Bar		727 Marrett Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1998	11	10	6	2	1	—	NAICS1997
1999	12	11	5	5	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	11	10	5	4	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	11	9	5	4	—	1	NAICS1997
2002	18	7	4	2	1	1	NAICS1997
2003	14	9	4	3	1	—	NAICS2002
2004	22	14	7	2	4	—	NAICS2002
2005	24	14	6	4	3	—	NAICS2002
2006	25	15	7	4	3	—	NAICS2002
2007	27	16	8	5	2	—	NAICS2002
2008	26	16	7	5	3	—	NAICS2007
2009	24	16	7	5	3	—	NAICS2007
2010	29	20	12	4	3	—	NAICS2007
2011	27	16	9	5	2	—	NAICS2007
2012	29	15	8	6	1	1	NAICS2012
2013	26	14	6	7	1	1	NAICS2012
2014	26	14	7	6	1	1	NAICS2012
2015	26	14	8	5	1	—	NAICS2012
2016	25	14	9	4	1	—	NAICS2012
2017	31	19	11	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	27	17	10	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	29	16	5	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	26	16	7	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	26	17	8	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	28	18	9	8	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	27	18	10	6	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 02421. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
02420	1.8 mi	41	2023
02451	2.6 mi	132	2023
01731	2.9 mi	1	2012
02452	3.1 mi	36	2023
02476	3.7 mi	27	2023
01773	3.7 mi	3	2019
02478	4.3 mi	52	2023
02474	4.4 mi	43	2023
01730	4.7 mi	29	2023
02453	4.8 mi	69	2023
01803	4.9 mi	112	2023
01890	5.0 mi	26	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.