BMIE Market 11516

Nassau County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	9,112 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±654 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	3,207 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±325 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	7,556 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,655 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$104,331 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±54,488 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	33.9 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,214 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±414 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$857,200 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±64,110 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	0.9 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	28 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 11516
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	38.4 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-3.5% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+7.7% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-3.5% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+7.7% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	33 (range 27–39) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.4 per year, r² 0.19) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	57 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	75 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	54 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	31 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 11516. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.4 restaurants per year, r² 0.19, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 57 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	74.8	75	40%	+29.9
Restaurant Opportunity Score	53.6	54	35%	+18.8
Market Momentum Score	31.4	31	25%	+7.9

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 75 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	9,112	69	40%	+27.8
Median household income (ACS)	104,331	84	40%	+33.4
Households (ACS)	3,207	68	20%	+13.6

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 54 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	7.7	52	35%	+18.2
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	30.7	19	25%	+4.8
Population (ACS)	9,112	69	20%	+13.9
Median household income (ACS)	104,331	84	20%	+16.7

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 31 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-3.5	24	50%	+12.0
10-year restaurant growth	7.7	52	30%	+15.6
20-year restaurant growth	-3.5	19	20%	+3.8

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (65)

By cuisine

Halal / kosher 15 · Coffee 11 · American 7 · Bakery 6 · Burgers 6 · Pizza 5 · Italian 4 · Sandwiches 4 · Steakhouse 4 · Chinese 3 · Dessert 3 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 3 · Japanese 3 · Asian 2 · Healthy / salads / bowls 2 · Juice / smoothies 2 · Mediterranean 2 · Sushi 2 · Vegetarian 2 · BBQ 1 · Breakfast 1 · British / Irish pub food 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · European 1 · German / Eastern European 1 · Mexican 1 · Seafood 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 41 · Café 8 · Bakery 7 · Coffee shop 7 · Dessert 6 · Quick service 6 · Bar 4 · Specialty food shop 4 · Casual dining 2 · Fast casual 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
46 Locust Ave	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Halal / kosher · American	46 Locust Ave	open
Absolute Radiance	Restaurant (service type not stated)		501 Central Ave	open
Amsterdam Burger Co - Cedarhurst	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	490 Chestnut St	open
Anju	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Asian · American	128 Cedarhurst Ave	open
Bagel Boys	Bakery · Café	Bakery · Coffee	598 Central Ave	open
Bagelry	Bakery · Quick service · Specialty food shop	Bakery · Sandwiches	507 Central Ave	open
Barbacoa Artisanal Burger House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · American	142 Spruce St	open
Bogo Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian · Halal / kosher	206 Rockaway Tpke	open
Brasserie Halevi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Halal / kosher	600 Central Ave	open
Burger Spot - Five Towns	Quick service	Burgers · Halal / kosher	560a Central Ave	open
Cafe Chocolat	Dessert · Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Dessert · Coffee	556 Central Ave	open
Casa	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee · Breakfast	566 Central Ave	open
Central Perk Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Coffee shop	Coffee	105 Cedarhurst Ave	open
Chickie's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Halal / kosher · Chicken / wings	566 Central Ave	open
Chimi BRGR	Quick service	Burgers · American	450 Rockaway Tpke	open
Chimichurri Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)		450 Rockaway Tpke	open
Cork & Slice	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · European	477 Chestnut St	open
Courtside Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Halal / kosher	602 Central Ave	open
Crawfords Coffee Bar & Cafe	Coffee shop · Fast casual · Café	Coffee · Healthy / salads / bowls	424 Central Ave	open
David's Famous Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Vegetarian · Halal / kosher	580 Central Ave	open
Doma Land + Sea	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse · Seafood · Halal / kosher	490 Chestnut St	open
Domino's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	77 Columbia Ave	open
Dunkin'	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert	517 Central Ave	open
Falafel Stop	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mediterranean	475 Central Ave	open
Fish Plate	Restaurant (service type not stated)	British / Irish pub food	140 Cedarhurst Ave	open
Fit Studio	Restaurant (service type not stated)		83 Columbia Ave	open
Five Fifty	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse · American	550 Central Ave	open
Flavors Frozen Yogurrt Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		590 Central Ave	open
Glicks Bakehouse	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Bakery	140E Washington Ave	open
Graze Smokehouse	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Halal / kosher	529 Central Ave	open
Häagen-Dazs Häagen-Dazs	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	116 Cedarhurst Ave	open
Hapina Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		128 Cedarhurst Ave	open
Holy Schnitzel Holy Schnitzel	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Halal / kosher · German / Eastern European	688 Central Ave	open
John's Coffee Shop	Café · Coffee shop	Coffee · Sandwiches	475 Chestnut St	open
Judd's Memphis Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Halal / kosher	560 Central Ave Unit A	open
Jus By Julie	Juice, smoothie, tea · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Fast casual	Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls	523 Central Ave	open
Kapao By Wok Tov	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	594 Central Ave	open
Kiss Cafe	Café	Coffee	500 Central Ave # R	open
La Terrazza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	142 Spruce St	open
Liquidz & Saladz	Coffee shop	Coffee	140 Washington Ave Unit E	open
Mike's Burgers	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	600 Central Ave	open
Mom's Pastries	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea	Bakery · Juice / smoothies · Halal / kosher	517 Central Ave	open
Off The Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse	600 Central Ave	open
Off The Wall Frozen Yogurt	Other · Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts		open
Oh! Nuts Oh Nuts!	Dessert		480 Central Ave	open
Ondas by Fuego	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse · Mexican · Halal / kosher	488 Central Ave	open
Pizza'le Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Mediterranean · Italian	560 Central Ave	open
Simply Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi	137 Spruce St	open
Smash House 5 Towns Smash House Burgers	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · Halal / kosher · American	594 Central Ave	open
Starbucks	Coffee shop	Coffee	424 Central Ave	open
Stop, Wok and Roll	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Asian · Sushi · Chinese	121 Cedarhurst Ave	open
Tamburino's Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	672 Central Ave	open
TCBY	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	529 Central Ave	open
The Cheese Store	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Specialty food shop	Coffee · Halal / kosher	532 Central Ave	open
The Goat	Bar		600 Central Ave	open
The Golden Child	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	515 Central Ave	open
The Upper Crust	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Vegetarian	442 Central Ave	open
The Wave Bar	Bar		709 Park Ln	open
Today's Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	202a Rockaway Tpke	open
Toddy's Appetizers	Bakery · Quick service · Specialty food shop	Bakery · Sandwiches	436 Central Ave	open
Uncle Mochi Cafe	Café	Coffee · Japanese	500 Central Ave	open
Willow Tavern	Bar		124 Cedarhurst Ave	open
Zomick's	Bakery	Bakery	444 Central Ave	open
The Lite Choice	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	590 Central Ave	closed
U B Sweet Inc	Dessert	Dessert	527 Chestnut St	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	28	26	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1995	25	23	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1996	32	30	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1997	37	35	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1998	35	27	10	8	8	3	NAICS1997
1999	35	26	10	8	8	3	NAICS1997
2000	32	25	11	7	7	3	NAICS1997
2001	32	27	14	6	7	2	NAICS1997
2002	36	31	15	10	6	2	NAICS1997
2003	34	29	14	9	6	2	NAICS2002
2004	33	27	14	6	7	2	NAICS2002
2005	35	29	15	6	8	2	NAICS2002
2006	34	29	13	9	7	2	NAICS2002
2007	34	27	11	10	6	4	NAICS2002
2008	42	35	13	14	8	3	NAICS2007
2009	38	30	10	12	8	4	NAICS2007
2010	36	29	9	12	8	3	NAICS2007
2011	36	29	10	10	9	3	NAICS2007
2012	34	27	11	8	8	3	NAICS2012
2013	32	26	11	8	7	2	NAICS2012
2014	32	25	9	10	6	1	NAICS2012
2015	32	26	9	11	6	1	NAICS2012
2016	38	31	12	12	7	1	NAICS2012
2017	41	34	11	17	6	—	NAICS2017
2018	35	29	9	16	4	—	NAICS2017
2019	35	29	8	16	5	—	NAICS2017
2020	38	34	10	18	6	—	NAICS2017
2021	36	32	9	17	6	—	NAICS2017
2022	34	29	9	16	4	—	NAICS2022
2023	33	28	9	15	4	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 11516. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
11598	0.8 mi	12	2023
11096	1.6 mi	14	2023
11559	1.7 mi	41	2023
11581	1.8 mi	43	2023
11557	1.9 mi	30	2023
11422	2.5 mi	37	2023
11691	2.5 mi	42	2023
11509	2.6 mi	11	2023
11518	3.2 mi	25	2023
11413	3.4 mi	29	2023
11430	3.5 mi	31	2023
11563	3.5 mi	75	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.