BMIE Market 11742

Suffolk County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	13,202 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,015 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	4,651 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±320 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	13,261 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	4,798 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$125,162 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±14,187 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	39.3 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,400 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±216 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$510,200 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±31,125 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	5.1 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	17 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 11742
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	6.8 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+30.8% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+240.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+325.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	19 (range 16–21) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.3 per year, r² 0.50) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	74 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	81 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	74 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	61 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 11742. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.3 restaurants per year, r² 0.50, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 74 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	81.2	81	40%	+32.5
Restaurant Opportunity Score	73.5	74	35%	+25.7
Market Momentum Score	61.3	61	25%	+15.3

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 81 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	13,202	75	40%	+29.9
Median household income (ACS)	125,162	92	40%	+36.7
Households (ACS)	4,651	73	20%	+14.6

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 74 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	30.8	71	35%	+25.0
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	12.9	61	25%	+15.2
Population (ACS)	13,202	75	20%	+14.9
Median household income (ACS)	125,162	92	20%	+18.4

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 61 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	0	42	50%	+20.9
10-year restaurant growth	30.8	71	30%	+21.4
20-year restaurant growth	240	95	20%	+19.0

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (28)

By cuisine

Dessert 3 · Italian 3 · Pizza 3 · Sandwiches 3 · American 2 · Asian 2 · Bakery 2 · Chicken / wings 2 · Chinese 2 · Coffee 2 · Breakfast 1 · Burgers 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Mexican 1 · Seafood 1 · Steakhouse 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 16 · Bar 5 · Quick service 4 · Bakery 3 · Dessert 3 · Casual dining 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Specialty food shop 2 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
161 Li Ave Food Store	Other	Sandwiches	161 Long Island Ave	open
Charlie Brown's Steakhouse	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse	175 Morris Ave	open
Chatters Bar and Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		185 Morris Ave	open
Chili's Grill & Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)		50 Middle Avenue	open
China Wok	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	157 Long Island Ave	open
CountyWide Ice Cream	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	1600 N Ocean Ave	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Quick service · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Coffee	1100 Waverly Ave	open
Firehouse Bagels	Bakery	Bakery	1018 Waverly Ave	open
Harvest Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	865 Waverly Ave	open
Holtsville’s Sports Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	1029 Waverly Ave	open
Hot Topping Inc Dba Firehouse Bagel	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1018 Waverly Ave Unit 11	open
It's Just Wings	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	50 Middle Avenue	open
J. Kings Food Services Professionals	Restaurant (service type not stated)		700 Furrows Rd	open
Jeannie's Chocolate Cabin	Dessert	Dessert	11 Hopes Ave	open
La Capannina	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	173 Morris Ave	open
La Famosa Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1018 Waverly Ave	open
New Season Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1100 Waverly Ave Ste 8	open
On The Border Mexican Grill & Cantina - Holtsville	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	45 Middle Ave	open
Papa Francescos	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian · Chicken / wings	1100-11 Waverly Ave	open
Sonoma Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	1730 N Ocean Ave	open
Stevey's Pizza & Pasta	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	1100 Portion Rd	open
The Monster All You Can Eat Seafood The Monster Crab-Holtsville	Bar	Seafood · Cajun, Creole, Southern	173 Morris Ave	open
The Speed Bump Inn	Bar			open
Tim Hortons	Coffee shop	Coffee	1194 Portion Rd	open
Waverly Deli	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches	1100 Waverly Ave	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service	Burgers · American	175 Morris Avenue	open
Yau Yu	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Breakfast · Asian	1018 Waverly Ave	open
Charlie Brown's Steakhouse	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse	45 Middle Ave	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	5	4	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	3	2	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	4	4	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	6	6	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	6	2	—	2	—	1	NAICS1997
1999	7	2	1	1	—	2	NAICS1997
2000	6	2	1	1	—	2	NAICS1997
2001	7	3	2	1	—	2	NAICS1997
2002	6	4	—	4	—	1	NAICS1997
2003	7	5	2	3	—	1	NAICS2002
2004	11	8	4	3	1	1	NAICS2002
2005	10	8	3	4	1	—	NAICS2002
2006	16	13	4	7	2	—	NAICS2002
2007	12	10	3	7	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	13	11	4	7	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	11	9	3	5	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	10	9	2	7	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	11	10	2	8	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	13	10	1	9	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	16	13	3	10	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	17	15	2	12	1	—	NAICS2012
2015	16	14	3	10	1	—	NAICS2012
2016	17	15	4	10	1	—	NAICS2012
2017	18	15	—	12	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	20	17	4	12	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	19	16	5	10	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	17	15	5	7	3	—	NAICS2017
2021	17	15	6	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	18	16	7	8	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	19	17	7	8	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 11742. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
11741	1.8 mi	38	2023
11738	1.9 mi	42	2023
11763	3.3 mi	49	2023
11779	3.8 mi	79	2023
11784	4.0 mi	52	2023
11715	4.1 mi	15	2023
11772	4.4 mi	140	2023
11720	4.6 mi	60	2023
11705	4.7 mi	23	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.