BMIE Market 50321

Polk County, Iowa · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	7,900 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±914 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	3,534 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±340 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	7,846 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	3,444 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$80,351 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±13,926 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	36.8 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,128 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±59 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$320,500 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±27,277 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	11.3 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	16 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 50321
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	19.1 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+6.7% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-15.8% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+23.1% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-11.1% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	13 (range 10–16) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.3 per year, r² 0.33) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	52 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	66 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	41 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	46 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 50321. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.3 restaurants per year, r² 0.33, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Iowa and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 635, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 52 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	65.8	66	40%	+26.3
Restaurant Opportunity Score	40.6	41	35%	+14.2
Market Momentum Score	45.9	46	25%	+11.5

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 66 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	7,900	67	40%	+26.9
Median household income (ACS)	80,351	63	40%	+25.0
Households (ACS)	3,534	69	20%	+13.8

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 41 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-15.8	16	35%	+5.5
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	20.3	37	25%	+9.2
Population (ACS)	7,900	67	20%	+13.5
Median household income (ACS)	80,351	63	20%	+12.5

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 46 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	6.7	63	50%	+31.7
10-year restaurant growth	-15.8	16	30%	+4.7
20-year restaurant growth	23.1	48	20%	+9.5

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (44)

By cuisine

American 11 · Coffee 8 · Sandwiches 6 · Burgers 3 · Italian 3 · Pizza 3 · Bakery 2 · Chinese 2 · Latin American (other) 2 · Asian 1 · BBQ 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Dessert 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Mediterranean 1 · Mexican 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Steakhouse 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 27 · Quick service 8 · Bar 6 · Café 6 · Coffee shop 5 · Casual dining 3 · Bakery 2 · Dessert 2 · Specialty food shop 2 · Fast casual 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Other 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Airport Lounge	Bar		5800 Fleur Dr	open
Arugula & Rye	Specialty food shop · Quick service · Fast casual	Sandwiches · Healthy / salads / bowls	5800 Fleur Dr	open
B-Bop's B-Bop's	Quick service	Burgers · American	4500 Fleur Dr	open
Baskin-Robbins	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Ice cream / frozen desserts	4221 Fleur Dr	open
Berk & Chesters	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	5800 Fleur Dr	open
Burger King	Quick service		4600 Fleur Dr	open
Caribou Coffee	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	4605 Fleur Drive	open
Casey's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	4331 Park Ave	open
Casey's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	2106 Echo Valley Dr	open
Champs Chicken	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	4121 Fleur Dr	open
Chocolaterie Stam Chocolaterie Stam	Dessert	Dessert	2901 Bell Ave	open
Corigliano's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	4249 Fleur Dr	open
Des Moines Biergarten	Bar		Des Moines Water Works Park, 2251 George Flagg Pkwy	open
Dunkin' Donuts	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	5800 Fleur Dr des Moines Int'L Airport	open
Francies	Casual dining · Bar	American	2100 Wakonda View Dr	open
Friedrichs Coffee	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	5800 Fleur Dr	open
Hospitality Restaurants, Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2100 Wakonda View Dr	open
Iowa Tap Room	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	5800 Fleur Dr	open
Jasper Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom		2400 George Flagg Pkwy	open
Jersey Mike's Jersey Mike's Subs	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	4319 Fleur Drive	open
Jethro's BBQ Southside Jethro's BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · American	4337 Park Ave	open
Jimmy John's Jimmy John's	Quick service · Specialty food shop	Sandwiches	3918 Fleur Dr Ste. 101	open
Johnny's Italian Steakhouse Johnny's Italian Steakhouse	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse · Italian · American	6800 Fleur Dr	open
La Cuscatleca South	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Latin American (other)	2580 Fleur Dr Ste 101	open
Loffredo Gardens	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	4001 SW 63rd St	open
Mayalu Coffee	Coffee shop · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	4226 Fleur Dr	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	4201 Fleur Dr	open
New Heights Coffee, Shakes & Energy Bar	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies	4521 Fleur Dr	open
Old West Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Latin American (other)	4138 Fleur Dr #2324	open
Orlondos Pizza On The Bike Trail	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	4337 Park Ave	open
Panera Bread Panera Bread	Bakery · Café	Bakery · Sandwiches · Coffee	4519 Fleur Dr	open
Portermill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	5800 Fleur Dr	open
Quiznos	Other	Sandwiches	5701 Fleur Dr	open
Ruby Bs Kitchen and Catering	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	4121 Fleur Dr	open
Skip's	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	4000 Fleur Dr	open
Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	4503 Fleur Dr	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	4226 Fleur Dr	open
The Green Olive	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Mediterranean · Coffee	4221 Fleur Dr	open
TMC Chrome Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee · American		open
True Burger Co	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	5800 Fleur Dr	open
Tsing Tsao South	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	4230 Fleur Dr	open
Mezzodi's	Restaurant (service type not stated)		4519 Fleur Dr	closed
Rookies Sports Bar & Grill	Casual dining · Bar		6151 Thornton Ave	closed
Us Roasterie, Inc.	Café	Coffee	2301 Bell Ave	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	21	18	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1995	22	17	—	—	—	5	SIC1987
1996	23	18	—	—	—	5	SIC1987
1997	22	19	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1998	22	14	4	9	1	5	NAICS1997
1999	20	14	4	8	2	4	NAICS1997
2000	17	11	4	5	2	4	NAICS1997
2001	19	13	5	6	2	4	NAICS1997
2002	15	13	7	6	—	2	NAICS1997
2003	15	13	6	6	1	2	NAICS2002
2004	17	14	7	6	1	2	NAICS2002
2005	19	15	7	6	2	2	NAICS2002
2006	20	17	7	7	3	1	NAICS2002
2007	19	17	7	7	3	2	NAICS2002
2008	14	12	5	5	2	1	NAICS2007
2009	16	14	5	7	2	1	NAICS2007
2010	17	15	5	8	2	1	NAICS2007
2011	19	16	6	7	3	1	NAICS2007
2012	21	17	7	8	2	1	NAICS2012
2013	20	19	7	9	3	1	NAICS2012
2014	18	17	7	7	3	1	NAICS2012
2015	21	18	7	8	3	2	NAICS2012
2016	19	16	5	8	3	2	NAICS2012
2017	20	17	5	11	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	18	15	5	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	19	16	6	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	16	13	4	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	17	15	5	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	19	17	6	9	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	19	16	5	9	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 50321. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
50315	2.4 mi	42	2023
50312	3.1 mi	43	2023
50309	4.0 mi	91	2023
50265	4.6 mi	54	2023
50311	4.6 mi	27	2023
50320	4.7 mi	30	2023
50319	5.0 mi	1	2016

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.